The belief-cost test
What is the costof wrong beliefs?
You're the CMO of a $10B consumer brand. Six decisions will cross your desk this year. A CFO ask, a budget review, a forecast call, a board-day reallocation. Each one is a real moment, drawn from peer-reviewed marketing science. The wrong call carries a measurable consequence — math shown in every reveal.
Your company
- Annual revenue
- $10B
- Marketing budget
- $1B10% of revenue, typical for a mature consumer brand
- Gross margin
- 30%used to translate revenue impacts into bottom-line context
- Decision horizon
- One fiscal yearbut impacts compound: long-run elasticities run 3-5 years
6 scenarios·~3 minutes·Hundreds of millions per wrong call