You are approving next quarter's influencer budget, and the easy way to justify it is reach: rank the accounts by follower count and fund the biggest. That is the number everyone can see and defend. Before you sign, ask what is actually associated with what moves your audience. The evidence points to a trusted creator, a genuine brand fit, and content people find useful and enjoyable, with raw follower count the weakest predictor of results.
Follower count is the wrong primary thing to buy in influencer marketing.
Marketers routinely equate reach with results, so budgets chase the biggest accounts. Pooled across 251 studies, raw follower count is a weak and unreliable guide to what actually predicts results. What consistently predicts attention, interest, and buying intent is a trusted influencer, a genuine fit with the brand, and content worth watching, not the size of the following.
Data chart
A trusted, well-matched creator predicts results far more strongly than a big following does.
Key takeaway
Buy trust and fit, not follower count; that is what consistently predicts influencer-marketing results.
Source
Pan, M., Blut, M., Ghiassaleh, A., & Lee, Z. W. Y. (2025). Influencer marketing effectiveness: A meta-analytic review. Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 53(1), 52–78. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11747-024-01052-7
Evidence strength: Strong for attention, interest, and buying intent (pooled across 251 studies, 27 countries); thinner for direct sales, and the results describe what moves together, not proven cause-and-effect or ROI.