Trial Drivers for New Packaged Goods

ConversionSteenkamp, J.-B. E. M.; Gielens, K. · 2003Journal of Consumer Research

Topicsnew product trial·cpg·adoption·hazard model·marketing mix·consumer innovativeness·product novelty

Most thinking about the trial of new products looks at the kind of shopper or the marketing behind a launch, rarely both. Trial means a shopper's first purchase of a new product. Some shoppers like trying new products and brands, while more cautious shoppers hold back, and some wait until others approve. Imagine your team is setting next year's launch plans for yogurt, pet food or household cleaners. Which launch choices widen trial beyond shoppers who love new things?

Some shoppers naturally try a new packaged good in its first year, but the trial gap between them and more cautious shoppers narrows when the product is clearly incremental and heavily advertised.

Data chart

Heavier advertising narrows the trial gap; novelty, a higher price and in-store support widen it

Strength of the link between each feature and the size of the trial gap between shoppers who like new products and more cautious shoppers, from 0 (no link) to 1 (perfect link), across 239 launches; the label says whether the feature widens or narrows the gap.

Heavier advertising is the only feature here that narrows the gap.

Heavier advertising is the one feature shown that narrows the trial gap between shoppers who like new products and cautious shoppers; a more novel product, a higher price, heavier in-store support and an impulse category widen it.

Effect sizes from 239 new packaged goods launched in the Netherlands, 1997-1998, first year after launch; advertising and in-store support are averages over that year, and price is relative to the category average. The strength of a link says how consistently a feature goes with a wider or narrower gap, not how many more shoppers try.

Action guide

Plan heavier advertising for your launches that must reach cautious shoppers.It narrows their trial gap with shoppers who like new products and eases the reluctance of shoppers who follow others' approval. At the levels these launches used, more advertising or in-store support shows no reliable sign of lowering trial.
Expect your novel launches to need shoppers who like trying new things.When your product is highly novel, priced above its category, sold in an impulse category or backed by heavier in-store support, trial depends more on them. Aim your first-year targeting and forecasts at them.
Make each of your launches clearly incremental or clearly distinctive.Shoppers try products of middling novelty least. Cautious shoppers fall further behind shoppers who like new products as novelty rises, so favor the incremental end when your launch must reach them. Ask your innovation team where each pipeline product sits before you commit launch budget.
Protect in-store support and distribution in your launch plans.Both go with more trial across launches.
Set your first-year trial expectations by category structure.Expect more trial in impulse categories and less where shoppers stock up, many brands already compete, or competitors answer advertising aggressively.
Aim your strongly branded launches at shoppers whom friends ask for advice.They show no consistent difference in trial overall, but compared with other shoppers they try more when a launch carries a stronger brand. Whether they then recommend it was not measured, so pilot any plan that counts on their recommendations.

Evidence

Shoppers who like trying new products and brands are more likely to try a new packaged good in its first year, on average across launches. That link is several times stronger than the links for the two other traits measured. Shoppers who tend to buy what others approve of are somewhat less likely to try.
Shoppers whom friends often ask for product advice show no consistent difference in trial overall. Compared with other shoppers, they try more when a new product carries a stronger brand, heavier advertising or heavier in-store support, and less in categories people buy on impulse.
With heavier advertising over a launch's first year, the trial gap between shoppers who like new products and cautious shoppers narrows. This is consistent with advertising lowering the quality risk that cautious shoppers see in an unknown product. Shoppers who follow others' approval also hold back less.
The trial gap widens when the product is more novel or priced above the category average. It also widens with heavier in-store support, such as store flyers and displays, and in categories people buy on impulse. Shoppers who follow others' approval hold back more as a product gets more novel.
Trial rises in the weeks a new product gets more in-store support or advertising. Across launches, a strong brand, heavier advertising and in-store support over the first year, and wider distribution go with more trial, and a price above the category average goes with less.
Shoppers try products of middling novelty less than clearly incremental products, such as a new yogurt flavor, or highly novel ones. Trial also runs higher in categories people buy on impulse, and lower in categories people stock up on, that already hold many brands, or where competitors react aggressively to advertising.

Key takeaway

Cautious shoppers narrow the trial gap with shoppers who like new products when launches are clearly incremental and heavily advertised.

Limitations

The data cover 239 food, drink, pet, personal-care and household products launched in the Netherlands in 1997-1998, and they measure first purchases in the first year, not repeat buying, sales or profit. The links are associations, and launch spending may itself respond to a product's early success.

Source

Steenkamp, J.-B. E. M., & Gielens, K. (2003). Consumer and Market Drivers of the Trial Probability of New Consumer Packaged Goods. Journal of Consumer Research, 30(3), 368–384. https://doi.org/10.1086/378615. Figures are from the authors' February 2003 manuscript of this article.

https://doi.org/10.1086/378615